Home » Market Recap | 2021 #20

Market Recap | 2021 #20

Hey everyone and welcome back to this weekly recap, where we take a look at what has happened last week and try to digest the information in our own way. I hope you all are doing well. I hodled, didn’t sell, but I still felt the pain in my heart to see the $ value of my bags cut in half.

What’s the market saying right now? Relief, last week we had a lot of FUD which led to a market dip of ± 50%.

What happened last week?

Technical Analysis

Alrighty, technicals, my favorite place to be and just watch the market move. I purchased the Tradingview Pro account so I’ll be able to share 2 timeframes at once. Woohoo.

ETH dropped at more than 60% from its highs of $4350 to a low of $1730. We’re seeing a lot of rejection candles, so people are buying the dips.

Ethereum

Bitcoin dropped 55% from its highs of $65k to a low of $29k. The rebound of Bitcoin is not as strong as Ethereum’s rebound, but we are seeing a “V” shape recovery.

Bitcoin

Let’s take a look at the Bitcoin Dominance. BTC rebounded when the markets crashed. Altcoins took a big hit of 60-70%, but recovered better than BTC.

BTC Dominance

Ethereum is still holding strong against Bitcoin, a little bit of a correction and back up.

ETHBTC

Metrics

Let’s take a look at some metrics, I love to take a step back and zoom out to look at the bigger picture. This is exactly why I don’t use lower timeframes when I do my TA.

Bullish

Exchange reserves

Ethereum

Overall the ETH exchange reserve is declining, but it had a spike while the markets dropped.

Ethereum Exchange Reserves
Bitcoin

Let’s look at last week’s screenshot. This looked bearish in hindsight, but we didn’t expect the market to react like it did.

WK 19 Bitcoin Exchange Reserves

People are withdrawing from exchanges again, but I want to see a similar depletion of the reserves like Ethereum.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserve

Bitcoin Miner Position Index

Bitcoin miners are still not selling since March 2021 which is really surprising, they HODLed through the whole crash.

Miner’s Position Index

Fear and Green Index

The market is extremely fearful and I don’t blame them. This is a perfect opportunity to buy the short term investor’s bags.

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

We’re now at the same level as the COVID-19 crash in March and we all know how well the markets recovered from it.

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

RHODL Ratio

This is the RHODL Ratio. The red area indicates a market top and the green area indicates a market bottom. As you can see, we’re 1/4 away from the top so enough room for more upside potential.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/rhodl-ratio/

200 Week Moving Average Heatmap

This is the 200 week moving average heatmap. When the orange and red dots show up then it has (historically) been a good time to sell as the market overheats (aka Extreme Greed). This indicator has made my PlanB .

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Bearish

Bitcoin Unrealized P&L

We’re currently in the Optimism-Anxiety, but nowhere near the Capitulation when the Covid crash happened back in March 2020.

https://checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealisedpnl_pricing_usd/unrealisedpnl_pricing_usd_light.html
Keep in mind that this indicator is very slow and lags behind the current market situation, good for super long term data.

Conclusion

The market is very fearful right now so there’s a lot of buying opportunities. When people are panic selling then it’s generally a good time to buy . #NotFinancialAdvice

That’s it for the market recap of Week 20 2021, I hope you enjoyed it and as always: Stay AbNormal!

What am I doing right now?

I’m out of bullets to buy dips, so I’m hodling again. I’ve added some Yield Farming strategies in my Cashflow check our overview.

Yield Farming in DeFi

Tip Jar

If you appreciate the work I’m doing, consider supporting the website 😊

ETH or ERC20: mitchel.eth
BTC Segwit: bc1qqfnfkrnhv903v9v38n98vvk35hgrp77ay7kwqr
BTC legacy: 1DhGZ1kvEF1wamq3oRb4f7pPz3cMBaxKz

Reminders

I’ll list some reminders for you guys and useful articles to help you understand certain topics better.

Crypto money flow

Always keep this image in mind, money flows from asset to asset.

Crypto Money Flow
https://www.rektcapital.co/articles/cryptomoneyflow

Fear is the mind killer

Take control of your emotion, and remember that you are the one pulling the trigger. It’s a lot harder than it sounds. This is the reason why you can’t rely on demo account or play accounts, because you’re taking away the biggest hurdle of an investor, EMOTIONS.

https://link.medium.com/SqECGkeNegb

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